Tax season is back, and with it comes fresh speculation about a potential fourth stimulus payment in 2026. President Donald Trump has promised “dividend” payments to middle- and low-income Americans, hinting at checks that could arrive before next year’s midterm elections.
“We’ve collected hundreds of millions in tariff revenue,” Trump said. “We’re going to issue dividends later on… thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, probably in the middle of next year or a little later.”
However, during a recent Oval Office interview, Trump appeared to forget his own pledge to send $2,000 checks, a plan tied to tariff revenue. “I did do that? When did I do that?” he asked. He later clarified he was thinking of the $1,776 bonus for service members but insisted that $2,000 payments could still happen toward the end of 2026, funded by “substantial” tariff collections.
The Numbers Behind the Promise
The plan aims to provide $2,000 per qualifying American, but experts warn that the estimated $600 billion cost far exceeds the $90 billion collected from tariffs as of September. Legal hurdles also loom: the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of these tariffs soon. If the court rules against the administration, any distributed funds could face complications, and refunds might even be required.
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